Tumultuous 2025 redrew the map of international commerce, the traditional lines of statecraft and the landscape of risk management.
The Brief wanted to know what comes next.
So, as the year came to a close, we reached out to leaders across policy, law and private industry and asked them each the same two questions: What storyline or moment defined 2025 in your domain, and what is its most pressing issue to address for 2026?
The answers we received were all different, but they shared in their urgency. Many also shared a clear throughline: how the second Trump administration spurred so much of 2025’s global change.
Here’s what our 14 contributors had to say, for the inaugural Kharon Debrief.
The Brief wanted to know what comes next.
So, as the year came to a close, we reached out to leaders across policy, law and private industry and asked them each the same two questions: What storyline or moment defined 2025 in your domain, and what is its most pressing issue to address for 2026?
The answers we received were all different, but they shared in their urgency. Many also shared a clear throughline: how the second Trump administration spurred so much of 2025’s global change.
Here’s what our 14 contributors had to say, for the inaugural Kharon Debrief.
Lukoil and Rosneft Sanctions Underscored the Need for Agility in the Face of Unpredictability
Claire O’Neill McCleskey is co-founder of Clarity Compliance Consulting and the former head of the Compliance Division at the U.S. Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control.
“The designation of Lukoil, Russia’s second-largest oil producer, exemplifies the way the second Trump administration uses sanctions and the challenges U.S. and multinational businesses will continue to face in implementing U.S. sanctions in 2026.”
[Read Claire’s full response.]
Tariffs Showed Companies ‘the Underlying Structure of Risk Itself Had Changed’
Jackson Wood is director of industry strategy at Descartes Systems Group.
“Economic security now is national security, and global trade is the primary domain of conflict. The policy language may be different across Washington, Brussels, Beijing, Ottawa and Tokyo, but the underlying shift is consistent—supply chains are now seen as core strategic assets, and governments expect the private sector to adapt accordingly.”
[Read Jackson’s full response.]
Supercharged by AI, Scammers Became Crypto’s ‘Dominant Illicit-Finance Threat’
Ari Redbord is the global head of policy at TRM Labs.
“2026 must be the year we meet AI with AI, embedding machine-speed analytics, anomaly detection and risk signals into the operating systems of exchanges, platforms, banks and law enforcement.”
[Read Ari’s full response.]
Lebanon Confronts Enduring Challenges, and an Opening to Undermine Hizballah
Hagar Chemali is founder and chief executive officer of Greenwich Media Strategies and former director for Syria and Lebanon at the National Security Council.
“Lebanon began 2025 with an opportunity it hadn’t had in more than 40 years: the chance to undermine Hizballah, and therefore Iran’s influence, and take charge of its own sovereignty.”
[Read Hagar’s full response.]
BIS Affiliates Rule and Brain Drain Will Continue To Impact U.S. Export Controls
Melissa Mannino is a partner at BakerHostetler and former chief of the Enforcement and Litigation Division at the U.S. Commerce Department’s Office of Chief Counsel for Industry and Security. James Perry is an associate at BakerHostetler.
“Tremendous [personnel] loss and the apparent review of select license applications, proposed charging letters and settlements at the highest level of BIS signal delays and uncertainty for 2026 and beyond.”
[Read Melissa and James’s full response.]
U.K. and EU Sanctions Evolved from Technical Threat to Enforcement Reality
Freya Page is Kharon’s director of global outreach.
“EU member states and the U.K. appear to be increasingly concerned not just with direct dealings but with whether firms can identify hidden ownership, informal control, and facilitation across sprawling commercial, financial and logistical networks.”
[Read Freya’s full response.]
The Auto Industry’s Driving Question: ‘How To Scale Real, Usable Supply Chain Visibility—Quickly’
Matt Pohlman is chief executive officer of the Automotive Industry Action Group (AIAG).
“By the end of the year, forced labor compliance had clearly moved into the boardroom. Leaders now understand that the risk isn’t only fines or audit findings—it’s shipment holds, production disruptions, reputational damage and even loss of market access.”
[Read Matt’s full response.]
A Year When the U.S. Added Terrorist Designations Like Never Before
Rachel Alpert is a partner at Jenner & Block and former chief counsel at the Office of Foreign Assets Control.
“We have seen sanctions used in response to a range of issues, and it is not always clear what the objective is of the sanctions action, what change in behavior would be sufficient to remove the sanctions, or why sanctions are being used, as opposed to a different tool of foreign policy and national security.”
[Read Rachel’s full response.]
For South Korea, Political Upheaval Behind and Uncertainties Ahead
J. James Kim leads the Stimson Center’s Korea Program.
“The Trump administration’s on-again-off-again changes this year to tariffs, Section 301 port fees and the BIS Affiliates Rule complicated Seoul’s trade policy and South Korean companies’ ability to make logistics and investment decisions.”
[Read James’s full response.]
‘Jewelry Businesses Have Had To Be Nimble’—and Pay New Upfront Bills
Sara Yood is chief executive officer and general counsel of the Jewelers Vigilance Committee.
“Geopolitical forces used to live in the background of the jewelry industry but now increasingly affect the day-to-day operations of businesses in this space.”
[Read Sara’s full response.]
Robust White House Action Broadened the Net for National Security Enforcement
Deborah Curtis is a partner at Arnold & Porter and a former senior leader at the U.S. Department of Justice, the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Industry and Security, and the Central Intelligence Agency.
“For years, DOJ has promised to hold individuals accountable for corporate misconduct, yet senior managers often watched their companies settle while they walked away untouched. That dynamic is ending.”
[Read Deborah’s full response.]
‘Maximum Pressure’ Against Iran Restarted in the U.S., Then Spread
Mark Nakhla is chief research officer at Kharon. Alexis Nicholson is a director of research at Kharon.
“While the 2025 measures established the legal framework for Iran’s financial isolation, 2026 is likely to be shaped by the challenging practical demands of enforcement and compliance.”
